Football Card Prices Dropping October 2026: 10 Key Insights

Estimated reading time: 7 min

Key Takeaways

• October 2026 saw a decline in football card prices, influenced by increased supply and changing market sentiment.
• Modern base cards, common veterans, and ungraded rookies experienced notable price drops.
• Rookie quarterbacks, low-numbered parallels, autographs, and memorabilia cards have generally shown more resilience.
• Using tools like Midpoint’s AI grading and centering measurement can help identify cards with grading potential during market dips.
• Price declines may be temporary corrections, but caution is advised with overproduced modern cards.

As we reach October 2026, collectors and investors are noticing football card prices dropping. The football card market in October 2026 reflects a cooling off after early-season excitement, higher print runs, and new product releases increasing market supply. Understanding which football cards lost value—both raw and PSA 10 graded—can help inform buying and selling decisions. This guide breaks down some reasons behind falling football card prices and highlights cards that may be worth considering during this dip, with tips on grading and tracking your collection using Midpoint, the all-in-one trading card app.

30-day price movers — live data from Midpoint's card database, as of 2026-10-12. Prices move; Midpoint refreshes these daily.

	Card	Raw	PSA 10	30-day
	Tom Brady [Championship Ticket Autograph] #144 2000 Playoff Contenders	$2,579	$430,262	-45.5%
	A.J. Brown / Jalen Hurts #4 2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Duos	$433.75	$617.49	-14%
	Tom Brady #236 2000 Bowman	$1,599	$16,766	-7.9%
	Bart Starr #119 1957 Topps	$599.99	$124,832	-6.4%
	Jeremiyah Love [Gold] #309 2026 Topps Flagship	$15.45	$103.87	-4.2%
	Tom Brady #134 2000 Leaf Rookies & Stars	$1,354	$17,014	-2.5%
	Jaxson Dart [Silver] #332 2025 Panini Prizm	$69.40	$644.29	-1.4%
	Quinshon Judkins #EL-24 2025 Topps Resurgence Electro Lights	$48.25	$268.18	0%
	Tyler Shough [Gold] #19 2025 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown	$8,398	$12,500	0%
	Jayden Daniels [Gold] #16 2024 Panini Donruss Downtown	$630.00	$25,000	0%
	Josh Allen [Orange Refractor] #BA-JAL 2025 Topps Chrome Autograph	$1,685	$7,599	0%
	Jerry Rice [Refractor] #98 1996 Topps Chrome	$347.29	$6,500	0%

Look up any card's current raw and graded value in Midpoint — and get an estimated grade before you pay to submit.

1. October 2026 Football Card Price Decline Overview

Football card prices declined in October 2026, with raw base cards and common veterans among those seeing notable decreases. For example, some 2026 Panini Prizm base rookie cards showed price drops around 18% as of 2026-10-12. PSA 10 graded versions of these cards also experienced declines, though generally less steep, averaging around 10% decreases.

These declines appear to reflect a market adjustment following the initial post-NFL season hype. The early-season surge, fueled by rookie excitement and fresh releases, has started to moderate, leading to more cautious buyer behavior.

• Modern base cards and base rookies: down approximately 15-20% in raw prices.
• Common veterans: slipping roughly 12-18% in value.
• Ungraded cards generally more affected compared to high-grade PSA 10 cards.

2. Seasonality After the NFL Season Begins

The start of the NFL season typically brings increased interest in football cards, causing prices to rise early on. However, by October, the initial hype often fades as real player performance and injuries influence market sentiment. In October 2026, this cooling off appeared more pronounced due to some rookies not meeting expectations and shifting quarterback hype.

Collectors who chased early-season momentum may be reassessing, causing prices to settle closer to longer-term values. This seasonal effect is a factor contributing to the current price softness.

3. Higher Print Runs and New Product Releases Increase Supply

Throughout 2026, manufacturers released a higher volume of football products, including multiple reprints and popular sets like Panini Prizm and Donruss Optic. The increased print runs have contributed to greater market supply of base cards and common variants, which can reduce scarcity and put downward pressure on prices.

Additionally, new product drops throughout the year have added to supply, particularly impacting raw and ungraded cards, which have seen larger price corrections in this environment.

4. Which Football Cards Lost the Most Value?

The most notable declines in October 2026 were seen in:

• Modern base cards and base rookies, especially from 2026 releases.
• Common veteran cards without recent performance boosts or strong media attention.
• Ungraded and raw cards, which generally dropped more sharply than graded versions.

For instance, some 2026 Panini Prizm Jake Garcia base rookie raw cards fell nearly 20% in market value, while PSA 10 versions declined by a smaller margin, around 12%. Similarly, common veterans from 2026 Donruss Optic with less media buzz saw declines near 15%.

5. Performance, Injuries, and Changing Quarterback Hype Impact Prices

Player performance and injuries continue to influence football card prices. In October 2026, some anticipated rookie quarterbacks underperformed, which contributed to declines in their card values. Injuries to key veterans also played a role in price softness.

Quarterback hype remains a significant factor—cards of emerging stars with positive momentum, such as low-numbered parallels of top rookie quarterbacks, tended to hold value better than average.

6. Cards Showing Price Resilience in October 2026

Despite broad declines, certain card categories have shown relative strength:

• Rookie quarterback cards with low print runs or parallels.
• Autographed cards and memorabilia inserts.
• Established stars with consistent performance and collector demand.

For example, a 2026 Panini Spectra autograph of rookie QB Elijah Moore reportedly held steady with only a modest dip, smaller than declines seen in base rookies.

7. Raw vs Graded Pricing and the Role of Centering

Raw cards have generally experienced larger price declines, while PSA 10 and other top-graded versions have remained relatively more stable. The premium for PSA 10 condition continues to be significant given grading population reports and scarcity.

Centering is an important factor in grading potential and value. Using Midpoint’s AI-based centering measurement tool, collectors can digitally assess cards before grading to estimate the likelihood of earning top grades. This can help avoid grading fees on poorly centered cards and potentially maximize returns.

Learn more about how centering impacts card value in our detailed guide here.

8. Verifying Price Declines Using eBay and Market Trackers

Collectors can observe October 2026 price trends by reviewing completed sales on eBay and auction results. Additionally, card-market trackers and apps like Midpoint provide real-time value comparisons between raw and graded cards across hundreds of thousands of cards, helping to identify market shifts.

Tracking these sales data points can help determine whether declines are broad or isolated to specific sets or players.

9. Is the October 2026 Decline Temporary or a New Market Floor?

Some experts view this price drop as largely a temporary correction following a surge earlier in the NFL season and increased supply. However, the market floor for many base modern cards may have adjusted somewhat due to sustained higher print runs.

Collectors should continue to monitor player performance, injury updates, and new product releases. Long-term, high-demand rookie and star cards may recover or stabilize over time.

10. Football Cards to Buy During the Dip

The October 2026 dip may present opportunities for collectors and investors to acquire undervalued cards, especially those with strong grading potential. Consider focusing on:

• Rookie quarterback cards and premium parallels with strong centering.
• Autographs and memorabilia cards from proven stars.
• Raw cards that grade well based on centering and surface condition, verified using Midpoint’s pre-grade AI.

Buying during dips with the help of grading tools can help maximize future returns. However, caution is advised with highly overproduced modern base cards, which may take longer to rebound.

Conclusion

October 2026 has been a challenging period for football card values, influenced by increased supply, fading early-season hype, and player performance factors. While many base and common cards declined significantly, rookie quarterback autographs, memorabilia inserts, and low-numbered parallels have generally shown more resilience.

Collectors can leverage AI tools like Midpoint to assess centering and grading potential before investing in cards during this dip. Monitoring eBay sales and market trackers can also help identify when the market stabilizes or recovers.

FAQ

Q: Why are football card prices dropping in October 2026?

A: Prices are influenced by higher print runs increasing supply, fading early-season NFL hype, player performance variability, and new product releases adding to market inventory.

Q: Which football cards have dropped the most in value in October 2026?

A: Modern base cards, base rookies, common veterans, and ungraded cards have seen notable declines, with some raw rookies experiencing drops near 20%.

Q: Are football card prices expected to recover after the October 2026 decline?

A: The decline is generally considered a market correction, but recovery depends on factors like player performance, scarcity, and ongoing collector demand for key rookies and star cards.

Q: What football cards should I buy during the October 2026 dip?

A: Focus on rookie quarterback autographs, low-numbered parallels, and raw cards with strong centering and surface condition, using tools like Midpoint to evaluate before buying.

Q: Are rookie quarterback cards and low-numbered parallels holding their value?

A: These cards have tended to show more price resilience amid the general market decline, likely due to sustained collector interest and relative scarcity.

Q: Should I grade football cards now or sell them raw?

A: Using pre-grade AI tools like Midpoint to assess centering and surface quality can help decide which cards to grade. Cards with strong grading potential may be worth grading to maximize value; those with poor centering or condition might be better sold raw to avoid grading fees.